National Home Price Index Records Weakest 1.3% Gain Since 2011
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain in December 2025, down from 1.4% in November and marking the weakest full-year rise since 2011. Mortgage rates closed 2025 at 6.2% while 2.7% inflation outpaced home appreciation by 1.4 percentage points.
1. Yearly Index Performance
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 1.3% year-over-year in December 2025, down from 1.4% in November and marking the weakest full-year increase since 2011's 3.9% decline. The 10-City Composite gained 1.9% for the year, while the 20-City Composite advanced 1.4%, matching November.
2. Mortgage and Inflation Impact
The national 30-year mortgage rate closed 2025 at 6.2%, well above its 4.8% ten-year average. Annual inflation ran 2.7%, surpassing home price gains by 1.4 percentage points, reversing a decade of positive real home returns and eroding owner equity beginning June 2025.
3. Geographic Divergence
City-level performance diverged sharply in 2025: Chicago led with a 5.3% annual gain, followed by New York (5.1%), Cleveland (4.0%) and Minneapolis (2.7%). At the bottom, Tampa (-2.9%), Denver (-2.1%), Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%) and Miami (-1.5%) posted the steepest declines.