Nebius Group to Boost AI Data Center Capacity to 1,000 MW With $20+ Billion Backlog

NBISNBIS

Nebius Group's stock has more than tripled over the past year on surging AI infrastructure revenue, supported by a $20+ billion contractual backlog that includes a $17.4 billion Microsoft deal and a $3 billion Meta agreement. The company will raise connected data center capacity to 800–1,000 MW this year to address supply constraints.

1. Stellar Share Performance and Revenue Acceleration

Nebius Group’s stock has more than tripled over the past 12 months, turning a hypothetical $1,000 investment into approximately $3,200. This surge reflects consecutive quarters of revenue growth well above 100% year-over-year, driven by new long-term contracts and a rapidly expanding customer pipeline. Management reported that quarterly billings more than doubled in Q3 2025 versus the prior year, signaling an inflection point in top-line momentum.

2. Enormous Market Demand and $20+ Billion Backlog

Operating in a supply-constrained neocloud market, Nebius has secured a contractual backlog exceeding $20 billion over the next five years. Consulting firm Deloitte forecasts U.S. AI data center power demand rising from 4 gigawatts in 2024 to 123 gigawatts by 2035. Nebius counts Microsoft among its largest customers, with a deal initially valued at $17.4 billion through 2031 (potentially increasing to $19.4 billion), and Meta Platforms, which signed a $3 billion agreement covering the next five years.

3. Rapid Capacity Buildout Under Tight Supply Conditions

At year-end 2025, Nebius had connected 220 megawatts of data center power capacity—up nearly tenfold from 2024—but was only 100 megawatts active due to GPU and hardware shortages. The company has pre-sold all capacity it is bringing online and aims to boost connected capacity to 800–1,000 megawatts in 2026. For contracted power capacity (electricity pre-commitments), management has raised its 2026 target to 2.5 gigawatts, reflecting strong utility partnerships and long-lead power procurement.

4. Long-Term Growth Projections and Attractive Forward Valuation

Nebius exited Q3 2025 with a $551 million annualized revenue run rate and projects this will swell to $7–9 billion by year-end 2026. Assuming a mature operating margin of 35%, the company could generate approximately $2 billion in operating profit on $8 billion in revenue, implying a forward price-to-sales ratio near 6.6 and a forward price-earnings ratio around 12. With a market capitalization near $24 billion, analysts view Nebius as a compelling growth vehicle for portfolios focused on the AI infrastructure megatrend.

Sources

FFFZ