Newmont Guides 2026 Gold Output at 5.26M oz, AISC to Jump to $1,680
Newmont’s Q4 2025 gold output fell 24% year-over-year to 1.45 million ounces, dragging full-year production down 14% to 5.89 million ounces. The company foresees 2026 output of about 5.26 million ounces and forecasts all-in-sustaining costs rising to $1,680 per ounce from $1,358.
1. Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Production Declines
Newmont reported Q4 2025 gold production of 1.45 million ounces, a 24% drop year over year, and full-year 2025 output of 5.89 million ounces, down 14%. The declines reflect the divestment of non-core assets and sequencing changes across major sites.
2. 2026 Production Guidance and Drivers
The company forecasts 2026 gold production at approximately 5.26 million ounces, citing lower output from Penasquito, Cadia, Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo, partially offset by first ore contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
3. Rising Unit Costs and Profitability Pressure
Newmont expects all-in-sustaining costs to rise to $1,680 per ounce in 2026, up from $1,358 in 2025, driven by lower sales volumes, higher royalties and taxes, deferred sustaining capital and inventory movements, which could weigh on margin targets.
4. Competitive Positioning and Valuation
Compared with Barrick’s guidance of 2.9–3.25 million attributable ounces and Agnico Eagle’s stable 3.3–3.5 million forecast, Newmont trades at a 6.4% forward P/E premium of 12.92x and projects earnings growth of 30% in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027.