Nike Shares Plunge 15.5% After Q4 Sales Guidance Cut and China Slump
Shares fell 15.5% to close at $44.62 on April 1 and have slid 31% year-to-date after Nike lowered fiscal Q4 sales guidance by 2–4% and forecast gross margins down 25–75 basis points. China revenue dropped 10% year-over-year, led by a 21% digital-sales decline and 13% wholesale slump.
1. Post-Earnings Stock Decline
After its latest earnings report and guidance update, shares plunged 15.5% to close at $44.62 on April 1, hit a low of $43.17 on April 2, and have slid 31% year-to-date, reflecting investor skepticism about the prolonged turnaround strategy.
2. China Business Pressure
Sales in China fell 10% year-over-year, driven by a 21% drop in digital sales and a 13% wholesale decline, intensifying concerns over the company’s ability to stabilize growth in its second-largest market.
3. Q4 Guidance and Analyst Revisions
The company forecasted fiscal Q4 sales down 2%–4% and gross margins down 25–75 basis points, implying EPS of $0.05–0.15 and prompting analysts to lower current-quarter EPS estimates to around $0.11.
4. Outlook and Upcoming Investor Day
Management has warned that the turnaround will take time and plans to outline detailed China targets and new innovation initiatives at its fall investor day, the first headquarters analyst meeting since 2017.