Nintendo misses Q3 revenue by 41.4 billion yen, maintains profit guidance
Nintendo’s fiscal Q3 revenue was 806.3 billion yen versus estimates of 847.7 billion yen, while net profit rose to 159.9 billion yen, beating the 147.3 billion yen forecast. It kept its 370 billion yen operating profit target and 19 million-unit Switch 2 sales forecast, but cautioned that sustained memory chip price rises could pressure margins.
1. Quarterly Revenue Miss Triggers Sharp Share Decline
Nintendo shares plunged more than 10% in Tokyo after the company reported ¥806.3 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 31, falling short of the ¥847.7 billion analysts had expected. This revenue figure, while representing an 86% year-on-year increase, failed to meet market estimates and sparked investor concerns about the sustainability of momentum for the recently launched Switch 2 console.
2. Memory Chip Shortage Puts Margin Pressure
Nintendo warned that an unprecedented global shortage of memory chips—key components in its Switch and Switch 2 devices—has driven component prices significantly higher. Although President Shuntaro Furukawa stated that the impact on fiscal year results has been limited so far, he cautioned that sustained high memory costs could erode operating margins if the shortage persists into the next fiscal year.
3. Profit Growth Bolstered by Switch Franchise
Despite the revenue shortfall, Nintendo delivered net profit of ¥159.9 billion for the quarter, exceeding LSEG estimates of ¥147.3 billion and marking a 24% year-on-year increase. The strong bottom-line performance was driven by robust sales of the original Switch, which remains the company’s best-selling console, and early demand for the Switch 2 since its June 2025 launch.
4. Guidance Unchanged as Upcoming Game Releases Take Center Stage
Nintendo confirmed its full-year forecast of 19 million Switch 2 unit sales, unchanged from its November projection, and maintained an operating profit target of ¥370 billion. Investors will be watching the release schedule of key titles—"Mario Tennis Fever" in February, "Pokémon Pokopia" in March and the April debut of "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie"—to gauge whether Nintendo’s content pipeline can sustain console upgrade demand and offset rising component costs.