GEO Group Price Target Slashed to $28 on Weaker 2026 Growth Forecast
Analyst firm Noble Capital lowered the GEO Group’s price target to $28 from $35 after trimming its 2026 growth forecast. The company reported Q4 revenue of $707.7 million and net income of $31.8 million, with full-year 2025 revenue at $2.63 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $464.4 million.
1. Analyst Price Target Reduction
Noble Capital reduced its price target on the GEO Group from $35 to $28 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing a slower-than-expected growth trajectory for fiscal 2026.
2. Financial Results
In Q4 2025 the company generated $707.7 million in revenue, net income of $31.8 million and adjusted net income of $34.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $126 million. For the full year, revenue reached $2.63 billion, net income totaled $254.3 million and adjusted EBITDA was $464.4 million.
3. Operational and Capital Updates
During 2025 the company expanded ICE bed capacity by 6,000, launched new secure transportation and electronic monitoring contracts, and completed the San Diego Detention Facility transaction. It ended the year with $70 million in cash, net debt of $1.5 billion and repurchased 4.94 million shares for $90.6 million under its $500 million authorization.