Non-traded BDC Redemptions to Peak at 15% in Q2, Fall by Q4
Analysts forecast non-traded BDC redemption requests to peak in Q2 2026 at 15% for Apollo Debt Solutions, 14% for Ares Strategic Income and 12% for Blackstone’s BCRED before easing below Q1 levels by Q4. Private credit sales plunged over 50% month-on-month in April.
1. Q2 Redemption Forecast
Analysts expect non-traded BDC redemption requests to reach historic highs in Q2 2026 as advisors seek to recoup prorated withdrawals from the first quarter of the year.
2. Fund-Level Projections
Projected requests include 15% of shares outstanding at Apollo Debt Solutions, 14% at Ares Strategic Income Fund and 12% for Blackstone’s BCRED in Q2, with HPS’ HLEND at 13% and Blue Owl’s OCIC and OTIC at 28.5% and 52.9%, respectively.
3. April Private Credit Sales Collapse
Private credit sales across the tracked funds plunged by more than 50% month-on-month in April, a decline attributed to intense media coverage and industry misinformation driving investor caution.
4. Redemption Outlook Through Year
Overall redemptions are expected to remain elevated above 5% through Q3 before falling below first-quarter levels in Q4, as most non-traded BDCs adhere to a 5% quarterly withdrawal limit.