Novo Nordisk Faces Setback as Lilly Pill Cuts A1C 2.2% vs 1.4%
In the ACHIEVE-3 trial, Eli Lilly’s orforglipron 36 mg achieved a 2.2% A1C reduction versus Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide 14 mg at 1.4%, and delivered 9.2% average weight loss versus semaglutide’s 5.3%, a 73.6% improvement. Lilly expects US obesity approval in Q2 2026, intensifying competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 franchise.
1. ACHIEVE-3 Phase 3 Trial Outcomes
In the first head-to-head study of oral GLP-1 therapies, orforglipron 36 mg delivered a 2.2% A1C reduction versus 1.4% for oral semaglutide 14 mg and achieved 9.2% average weight loss compared to 5.3%, enrolling 1,698 adults over 52 weeks.
2. Competitive Impact on Novo Nordisk
The superior efficacy of Lilly’s candidate threatens Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide franchise, potentially eroding share in the fast-growing type 2 diabetes and obesity markets and pressuring future revenue growth.
3. Strategic Outlook and Next Steps
Lilly’s US obesity approval is expected in Q2 2026 while Novo Nordisk may accelerate enhancements to its semaglutide portfolio or advance next-generation candidates to counteract competitive pressure and support stock performance.