Novo Nordisk Shares Fall 15.9% After CagriSema Misses Tirzepatide Weight-Loss Goal
NVO•Novo Nordisk shares plunged 15.9% after its REDEFINE 4 trial showed CagriSema achieved 20.2% weight loss versus 23.6% for tirzepatide over 84 weeks, missing non-inferiority. Shares now trade at 11 times earnings with a 4.7% dividend yield as 2026 guidance forecasts revenue and profit declines while capex ramps.
1. REDEFINE 4 Trial Shortfall
The REDEFINE 4 Phase 3 trial enrolled 809 patients over 84 weeks and tested fixed-dose CagriSema (cagrilintide 2.4 mg plus semaglutide 2.4 mg) against tirzepatide 15 mg, delivering 20.2% average weight loss versus 23.6% for tirzepatide and failing to meet the non-inferiority margin.
2. Stock Drop and Valuation Reset
Shares fell 15.9% on the trial outcome, resetting Novo Nordisk’s valuation to 11 times forward earnings and elevating its dividend yield to 4.7%, as investors reassess growth expectations.
3. 2026 Guidance and Capex Outlook
The company’s 2026 guidance projects declining revenue and profit as capital expenditures ramp to expand diabetes and obesity drug manufacturing capacity.
4. Pipeline and Competitive Landscape
The setback reinforces Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide leadership in weight-loss therapies and raises strategic questions about Novo Nordisk’s next-generation GLP-1/GIP agonist programs and potential oral formulations.
