Novo Nordisk warns of 2026 semaglutide patent expirations, eyes volume growth
Novo Nordisk faces semaglutide patent expirations in Canada and China in 2026 and anticipates price pressure from generic competition and its U.S. drug pricing agreement. CEO Mike Doustdar said the company will offset revenue declines through volume growth and proactive business development to complement its pipeline.
1. Expansion of Diabetes Cell Therapy Collaboration
Novo Nordisk has deepened its partnership with Canada-based Aspect Biosystems to accelerate development of cell-based treatments for type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Under the expanded agreement, Novo Nordisk will provide up to $75 million in research funding over three years and secure exclusive global rights to any resulting therapies. The deal builds on an initial 2023 collaboration and grants Aspect access to Novo Nordisk’s proprietary islet cell encapsulation technology. Executives project that successful cell therapies could address the underlying loss of insulin-producing beta cells and generate peak annual revenues of $2–3 billion by the early 2030s, complementing the company’s current GLP-1 portfolio.
2. Managing Patent Expirations and Price Pressure
CEO Mike Doustdar cautioned investors that 2026 will mark “the year of price pressure” for semaglutide products as patents expire in key markets including Canada and China, and as U.S. pricing agreements take effect. Novo Nordisk expects generic competition to drive price declines of 20–30% in those territories. To offset this, management plans to pursue volume growth—targeting a 15% compound annual increase in global unit sales—and to continue business development in adjacent therapeutic areas. The company forecasts that new partnerships and in-licensing deals could add up to $5 billion in incremental sales by 2030, cushioning the impact of lower average selling prices.
3. Early U.S. Adoption of Oral Wegovy
Following its early January launch, oral Wegovy has recorded more than 50,000 prescriptions in its first week, according to internal data presented at a recent investor event. This initial uptake far exceeds analysts’ baseline forecast of 20,000 scripts for a comparable launch period, and led to a 9.1% rise in Novo Nordisk’s European‐listed shares on the day of the report. Management attributes the strong demand to broader physician familiarity with subcutaneous semaglutide and streamlined access through direct‐to‐pharmacy delivery. If growth sustains at current levels, oral Wegovy could contribute up to DKK 6 billion in U.S. revenues by the end of 2026, bolstering the company’s leadership in the obesity and diabetes markets.