On Wednesday, President Donald Trump confirmed that his administration will permit sales of Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, imposing a 25% surcharge on the revenue generated. The formal rule published by the Department of Commerce the day prior requires exporters to certify that U.S. customers’ demand for H200 units is met and that shipments will not divert manufacturing capacity needed for more advanced AI products destined for domestic markets. The move follows Trump’s original announcement a month ago and marks the first time the Hopper-generation H200, which matches the specifications of chips sold in the United States, has received explicit export clearance to China under a conditional fee structure.

Although the H200 represents the second-highest tier within Nvidia’s Hopper family, it has already been superseded by two subsequent generations—Blackwell and Rubin—both of which deliver significantly higher performance for large-scale AI training and inference. In his public remarks, President Trump noted that the H200 "is not the highest level, but it’s a pretty good level," highlighting that U.S. domestic and international customers will continue to prioritize Nvidia’s most advanced chips. The regulated export of H200 units is expected to generate substantial revenue for Nvidia (with China’s market opportunity previously forecast by the company at up to $50 billion annually) while granting the U.S. Treasury a direct cut of one quarter of each sale’s value.

The announced export policy reshapes Nvidia’s China revenue outlook for 2026 and beyond. By capturing a 25% government fee, the U.S. effectively shares in the expected growth tied to China’s AI infrastructure buildout. Analysts estimate that if China purchases even 20% of Nvidia’s annual H200 production—equivalent to roughly 100,000 units—the U.S. government could collect in excess of $5 billion under the surcharge arrangement. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s ability to maintain supply to both domestic and overseas customers hinges on its capacity expansions across U.S. and Asian foundries, where the company has committed to doubling Hopper-class wafer starts over the next 12 months. Investors will closely monitor compliance filings with the Commerce Department and any shifts in China’s procurement strategy, which could influence Nvidia’s near-term revenue growth and margin profile.