Nvidia Guides to $65B Q4 Revenue as AI Demand Drives 65% Y/Y Gain
Nvidia forecast fiscal Q4 revenue of $65 billion, implying 65% year-over-year growth from the prior-year period’s $39.3 billion on record AI data center demand. CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia has visibility to $500 billion in Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin platform revenue through calendar-year 2026.
1. Earnings Growth Outpaces Valuation Pressures
Nvidia’s fiscal 2025 results showcased revenue of $57 billion in Q3, up 62% year-over-year, and gross margins sustained above 70%, while valuation multiples contracted by 15% even as earnings per share grew by over 80%. Inventory increased by $4 billion and receivables by $3 billion during the quarter, reflecting prepositioning for integrated AI systems rather than weakening end-market demand. Consensus estimates project full-year earnings growth of 75% and free cash flow generation exceeding $35 billion, underscoring that share-price gains have lagged the company’s fundamental expansion.
2. Strategic China Chip Shipments Poised for Expansion
Nvidia plans to begin shipping its H200 AI accelerators to China using existing inventory by mid-February, backed by preliminary orders for two million units in 2026. These shipments follow U.S. export-control relief granted late in 2025 and represent an opportunity to recapture an estimated 13% of overall revenue. Production capacity is being ramped at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to support both H200 volume and concurrent Blackwell platform deployments in data centers globally. Approval timing in Beijing remains the primary execution risk, but management indicates high confidence based on positive bilateral discussions.