In a recent development, Nvidia evaluated Intel’s new 18A chip manufacturing process for its next-generation GPUs but ultimately declined to adopt it. This decision marks a significant blow to Intel’s foundry turnaround strategy, as Nvidia was the most sought-after potential external client for the 18A node. Intel has spent the past two years investing more than $20 billion in ramping its foundry services, yet has yet to secure a marquee customer for its advanced process. Nvidia’s choice underscores both the company’s confidence in its incumbent supplier ecosystem and the challenges facing Intel as it seeks to validate its foundry credentials in a market dominated by incumbents with decades of process maturity.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang revealed that Beijing has not yet finalized approvals for imports of the firm’s H200 AI accelerator modules. While Nvidia’s supply chain is fully prepared to ship the units, the company has not received any purchase orders from Chinese hyperscalers or cloud providers. Huang indicated that the licensing paperwork is nearing completion, but emphasized that the ultimate decision rests with Chinese regulators. This postponement delays potential multi-hundred-million-dollar sales in one of the world’s largest data-center markets and adds uncertainty to Nvidia’s 2026 revenue outlook, given that Greater China accounted for approximately 15% of its data-center segment last year.

Nvidia currently trades at roughly 41 times its projected 2026 earnings—more than twice the multiple of legacy semiconductor peers—driven by expectations for sustained data-center spending and AI adoption. Analysts forecast revenue growth exceeding 60% per annum over the next two years, driven by sales of its H100 and next-gen Blackwell GPU families. At the same time, easing US-China trade tensions have underpinned hopes of renewed market access in China, offsetting competition risks from emerging AI silicon challengers. Wall Street consensus remains heavily tilted toward “buy” ratings, with over 35 brokerages maintaining positive recommendations and a median 12-month price target implying roughly 30% upside from current levels.