NVIDIA Needs $20–$25 EPS by 2030 to Reach $500 Share Price
FY2026 revenue reached $215.94 billion, up 65.5% year-over-year, with free cash flow of $96.6 billion and Q4 data center networking revenue surging 263%. Current estimates project $9–$10 EPS this fiscal year and indicate EPS must reach $20–$25 by FY2030 to support a $500 share price at a 20–25x multiple.
1. EPS Projection and Price Target
NVIDIA would need to generate $20–$25 in adjusted EPS by fiscal 2030 to justify a $500 share price based on a 20–25x forward multiple. Current Street consensus sits at $8.25 in EPS for this fiscal year but analysts expect that to rise to $9–$10 following the upcoming GTC conference, setting the stage for higher long-term models.
2. FY2026 Performance Metrics
Full-year FY2026 revenue came in at $215.94 billion, marking a 65.47% increase year-over-year, while free cash flow totaled $96.6 billion. In Q4, data center networking revenue soared 263% year-over-year and gross margins held near 75%, reflecting strong adoption of the full AI infrastructure stack.
3. Headwinds to Share Gains
Shares have traded in a narrow range despite robust fundamentals as hyperscaler spending plans are viewed as approaching a plateau unless AI infrastructure begins funding itself through new revenue. Skepticism around the so-called OpenAI complex has further pressured multiples, with investors uncertain whether OpenAI’s spending pace can be sustained.
4. Upcoming Catalysts and Outlook
NVIDIA’s annual GTC event, starting March 16, is expected to outline its next-generation AI products and product roadmap, potentially prompting analysts to raise EPS and revenue forecasts for FY2028 and beyond. Continued beat-and-raise execution over the next quarters will be critical for validating the path toward a $500 share price by 2030.