Nvidia Guides $65B Q4 Revenue after 63% Q3 Growth, Invests $150M in Baseten

NVDANVDA

Nvidia reported Q3 revenue up 63% year-over-year and free cash flow rising 60% sequentially to $22 billion, and guided Q4 revenue of $65 billion on robust AI infrastructure demand. It also invested $150 million in AI inference startup Baseten and plans up to $100 billion in OpenAI funding and a $20 billion xAI deal.

1. Nvidia Commits $150 Million to Baseten to Bolster AI Inference

In its latest strategic move, Nvidia has invested $150 million in Baseten, a startup focused on simplifying AI inference deployment for enterprise customers. The funding round, led by Nvidia’s corporate venture arm, follows earlier contributions to data-center software and model-serving platforms. Nvidia plans to integrate Baseten’s low-code orchestration tools with its DGX systems, potentially reducing time-to-production for large language models by up to 40%. This investment builds on Nvidia’s broader effort to create an end-to-end AI stack, from silicon to software, and enhances its ability to capture recurring services revenue estimated at over $1 billion in fiscal 2025.

2. Analysts Highlight Nvidia as a Buying Opportunity on Recent Pullback

Despite recent tariff concerns weighing on the technology sector, several Wall Street firms have reiterated Buy ratings on Nvidia, citing the company’s dominant share of the AI chip market and robust growth trajectory. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month revenue forecast by 8%, projecting $250 billion for calendar 2026, while Morgan Stanley upgraded its price target based on a 65% compound annual growth rate in data-center GPU sales through 2028. Analysts point to expanding adoption of Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture across hyperscale data centers as a catalyst that could drive free cash flow above $40 billion next fiscal year, making the current pullback an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

3. Nvidia Shares Dip Over 3% as Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment

On Tuesday, Nvidia’s stock declined more than 3% following reports of escalating trade and diplomatic tensions related to Greenland acquisition talks. The broader tech sector experienced a sharp risk-off unwind, with investors reallocating out of growth names into defensive assets. Several strategists noted that while geopolitical uncertainty can pressure short-term multiples, Nvidia’s underlying demand for AI infrastructure remains intact, supported by multi-year purchase agreements covering over $30 billion of future GPU deliveries to cloud service providers and research institutions.

4. Q3 Earnings Showcase 63% Year-Over-Year Revenue Growth and Strong Cash Generation

In its fiscal third quarter, Nvidia reported revenue of $18.0 billion, up 63% year-over-year, driven largely by record data-center sales. Operating margin expanded by 650 basis points to 55.2%, reflecting improved leverage on fixed R&D costs and favorable mix from high-margin AI products. Free cash flow surged 60% sequentially to $22.0 billion, bolstered by accelerated collections and disciplined capital expenditures. Management issued fourth-quarter guidance of $65.0 billion in revenue, expecting AI chip demand to account for nearly 90% of total sales as enterprise and cloud customers ramp up deployments of the new Blackwell GPU architecture.

Sources

BW2SY
+6 more