Nvidia’s recent decision to test but ultimately bypass Intel’s new 18A process represents a major blow to Intel’s foundry turnaround. Intel had projected that 18A adoption would be validated by external customers in the first half of 2026, but Nvidia declined to commit, leaving Intel without a marquee client. This comes as Intel’s stock has more than doubled over the past six months on optimism around its foundry pivot. Without Nvidia’s endorsement, Intel’s ambitions to capture a meaningful share of the contract-manufacturing market now face increased skepticism from investors and industry analysts.

With Nvidia trading at roughly 41 times forward earnings, investors are weighing potential risks against robust AI-driven demand. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and a $250 target, citing checks that forecast 63% revenue growth in 2026, while Bernstein maintained a Buy stance with a $275 target, pointing to Nvidia’s dominant position in AI accelerators and high-performance computing. The Street’s consensus target of about $264 implies nearly 40% upside, but trade tensions, potential regulatory hurdles and competition from in-house AI chip initiatives at hyperscalers pose headwinds for the richly valued stock.

CEO Jensen Huang has confirmed that the export license for Nvidia’s new H200 AI chip is in the final stages of Chinese government review. To date, no orders have been booked from mainland customers, as Beijing continues its internal deliberations. Approval would open a critical revenue stream—China represents roughly one quarter of Nvidia’s data-center sales—but a delay or rejection would force Nvidia to rely on other emerging markets and could slow its forecasted 70% year-over-year growth in AI chip shipments for fiscal 2026.