Nvidia Stock Nears $200 Split Threshold as TSMC CoWoS Bottleneck Looms
NVDA•Nvidia trading near $200 needs a 100–200% rise to prompt another stock split after six since 2000, reflecting a $4.8 trillion market cap and AI-infrastructure demand. TSMC’s CoWoS packaging capacity remains strained—evidenced by MediaTek hiring a TSMC executive—limiting Nvidia’s chip output in the face of competition from Amazon’s $20 billion chip arm.
1. Stock Split Outlook
Nvidia has conducted six stock splits since its 1999 IPO, totaling a 480-for-1 ratio. With shares trading near $200, historical patterns suggest a 100%–200% price increase would be required to prompt another split, a milestone likely years away given a $4.8 trillion valuation and ongoing AI demand.
2. Packaging Capacity Constraints
TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging is in high demand from Nvidia and cloud service providers, creating capacity bottlenecks. MediaTek’s hire of former TSMC executive Douglas Yu highlights the scramble for backend expertise and could signal extended lead times for Nvidia’s wafer-level packaging until new capacity comes online.
3. Emerging Competition
Nvidia faces rising pressure from Amazon’s custom silicon unit, which has reached a $20 billion run rate, as well as chipmakers like Marvell and Navitas benefiting from Nvidia partnerships. These rivals’ focus on inference efficiency and power-optimized designs may chip away at Nvidia’s share in targeted AI segments.
