Nvidia to Surpass Alphabet’s $146B Profit and Hit $6T Market Cap in 2026

NVDANVDA

Nvidia is projected to overtake Alphabet as the world’s most profitable company in 2026 with estimated net income of $170 billion versus Alphabet’s $146 billion, driven by forecasted 50% revenue growth and sustained 53% margins. The chipmaker could also breach a $6 trillion market capitalization if it trades near 40× forward earnings.

1. Institutional Ownership Increases Emphasis on NVDA

Smith Salley Wealth Management raised its stake in NVIDIA by 1.3% during the third quarter, acquiring an additional 10,399 shares to bring its total to 808,419 shares. As of the end of the period, NVIDIA comprised 7.8% of Smith Salley’s portfolio, with the position valued at approximately $150.8 million. This move underscores growing confidence among smaller institutional managers in NVIDIA’s leadership in AI and data-center acceleration.

2. Robust Q3 Earnings Underscore Profitability

In its third-quarter report, NVIDIA delivered revenue of $57.01 billion, topping consensus estimates of $54.66 billion, and reported non-GAAP EPS of $1.30 versus the Street at $1.23. Net margin reached 53%, while return on equity hit 99%, driven by a 62.5% year-over-year revenue increase. The results were fueled by continued strength in data-center GPU deployments, with management guiding that AI-related product mix is set to remain elevated into fiscal Q4.

3. Insider Sales Reflect Active Portfolio Rebalancing

During the fourth quarter, several NVIDIA directors and executives reduced their holdings: Director Mark A. Stevens sold 350,000 shares for proceeds of $63.6 million, and Director Harvey C. Jones sold 250,000 shares for $44.3 million. Over the past 90 days, insiders have divested 1.91 million shares worth $349.6 million, bringing total insider ownership to 4.17% of outstanding stock. These transactions are being interpreted by some investors as routine diversification rather than a signal on the company’s long-term outlook.

4. Analyst Community Remains Overwhelmingly Positive

Wall Street’s consensus remains bullish, with five analysts assigning Strong Buy ratings, 46 Buys, two Holds and a single Sell. The average price target stands at $262.84. Recent upgrades include UBS raising its rating to Buy and KeyCorp lifting its target to $275, while CICC and Wells Fargo reaffirmed Outperform and Overweight ratings, respectively. The high proportion of Buy-side endorsements reflects expectations of sustained AI-driven revenue and margin expansion through 2026.

Sources

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