JPMorgan Says Nvidia’s 20% Rally Won’t Mirror Last Year’s 120% Surge
Nvidia’s shares have climbed roughly 20% from March lows this month, lifting the SOXX semiconductor index by 9%, but JPMorgan warns conditions for a repeat of last year’s 120% six-month post-Q1 rally are unlikely to materialize. Taiwan Semiconductor’s Q1 revenue surged 35% to NT$1.134 trillion, signaling robust AI chip demand.
1. Nvidia’s April Rally and Outlook
Nvidia’s stock has rallied 19% from March lows so far in April, but JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka cautions that market leadership will broaden and that key conditions for replicating last year’s 120% six-month ascent are not in place.
2. Sector-Wide Gains in Semiconductors
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index rose 9% in April, driven by major chipmakers: Micron gained 37%, Broadcom 35%, AMD 25% and Nvidia 19%, reflecting strong investor appetite amid ongoing AI infrastructure build-out.
3. AI Demand Signals from TSMC and Intel
Taiwan Semiconductor reported NT$1.134 trillion in Q1 revenue, up 35% year-over-year and its first quarterly sales above a trillion NT dollars, while Intel’s latest earnings underscored sustained strength in AI chip demand.