Oil Could Hit $200 per Barrel With 400M Barrels Lost Monthly
Oil may spike to $150–200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for six to eight weeks, cutting 100 million barrels weekly and 400 million monthly. Persian Gulf producers have shut in millions of barrels daily, fueling futures volatility following tanker attacks and political signals.
1. Supply Disruption From Hormuz Closure
Energy-market consultancy FGE NexantECA projects that closure of the Strait of Hormuz is costing 100 million barrels of oil weekly and 400 million monthly, as Iran war dynamics limit shipments.
2. Forecasted Price Surge
Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki warns that sustained closure over six to eight weeks could push oil prices to $150–200 per barrel based on cumulative supply losses.
3. Drivers of Market Volatility
Futures markets have reacted sharply to tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf and political statements on US military operations, intensifying price swings and risk sentiment.
4. Reinforcing Analyst Views
Macquarie Group projects a potential $200 peak and Societe Generale signals credible $150 spikes, underscoring broad consensus on tight supply pressures.