Crude benchmarks plunged more than 10% in early trading after President Trump predicted a swift end to the Iran conflict, triggering extreme price swings before markets recovered a portion of losses. The dramatic moves underscore sensitive trader positioning and the potential for sharp reversals on geopolitical news.

Analyst firm Kpler highlighted that any coordinated release of emergency reserves by major economies would need to occur rapidly to influence crude futures and stabilize prices. Delayed or gradual discharges may fail to offset sudden supply shocks, limiting their market impact.

Saudi Aramco’s chief executive warned that continued closures of the Strait of Hormuz could inflict catastrophic disruption on global oil flows, intensifying supply concerns. Iranian officials have cautioned vessels to exercise extreme care in the waterway amid ongoing regional tensions.

Saudi Aramco reported full-year 2025 profits exceeding estimates and distributed $85.5 billion in shareholder dividends, reinforcing its role in funding the kingdom despite volatile crude markets. The payout underscores strong cash generation even as prices fluctuated throughout the year.