Today, armies of analysts, along with increasingly sophisticated AI systems, are sifting through vast streams of information to determine how much oil is actually moving through the strait.
Satellite imagery is cross-checked against port records, tanker drafts, loading schedules, refinery receipts and vessel-tracking data to reconstruct movements previously monitored in near real time.
The challenge has become exponentially harder because of the surge in "dark crossings," when tankers switch off navigation and identification systems while approaching, transiting or leaving the strait. A U.S. request for commercial satellite firms to delay imagery from the Gulf has further clouded the picture.
As a result, nobody can say with confidence exactly how much oil is flowing through Hormuz on any given day.
There are growing signs that Iran's grip on the strait may be weakening. Months of tit-for-tat military exchanges have degraded Tehran's radar systems and strike capabilities near Hormuz. U.S. demining operations and a growing U.S.-protected shipping corridor along Oman's coast have allowed more vessels to enter and leave the Gulf.
The multi-billion-dollar question is how many vessels?
CONFUSION REIGNS
This uncertainty was highlighted by conflicting estimates from the Trump administration.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on September 2 that more than 17 million barrels transited the strait on August 31 under U.S. Navy supervision, a figure that would represent the highest level recorded since the war began.
The claim left traders and analysts scratching their heads. More than a week later, ship-tracking firm Kpler, which uses satellite imagery, transponder signals, port logs and commercial shipping intelligence, suggested that perhaps only 6 million barrels crossed Hormuz that day.
Kpler estimates crude flows through Hormuz in August averaged only around 4.3 million barrels per day, rising to nearly 5 million bpd during the first six days of September. It also notes that transits appear to have fallen sharply in recent days.
One possible explanation is that the administration is including exports from the United Arab Emirates' Fujairah terminal, located outside the strait and supplied by Abu Dhabi's bypass pipeline.
Moreover, a single day’s observation says little about broader trends. Wright admitted as much, saying on Sunday that flows through Hormuz were averaging more than 9 million bpd, though he did not specify the period. That would be in line with Kpler’s estimates when Hormuz flows are combined with exports moving through alternative routes that bypass the strait.
To complicate matters further, tankers can remain dark for days or even weeks before and after crossing the strait, so actual volumes could ultimately prove to be significantly higher than current estimates suggest.
The new Hormuz may therefore be carrying half its pre-war volumes, or it may be carrying considerably more.
That caveat illustrates the broader problem.
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