Oil slides on clues about Fed policy, rumors of Hormuz deal

Following comments by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh pointing to a possible rate hike later this year to curb inflation, oil prices descended further, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at the Price Futures Group. "The (global) products markets are looking strong on further Ukraine strikes on Russian refineries," Flynn said. "But there is a lot of rumbling, rumors we might see a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend." The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran completed its sixth month on Friday. Traders were watching increasing flows of oil through the strait, through which 20% of global oil production flowed before the war started. "The market has been surprised by the additional flow, Iran-Oman shipping corridor and the U.S. mine clearance claims," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. "The weekly decline would likely be due to the available volume that is able to exit the Strait and the pace of ramp-up in flows. That would allow Asian refiners to pull and consume," he said. Trump administration officials are working on a deal to secure long-term access to a portion of Venezuela's crude reserves, sources with knowledge of the negotiations said on Thursday. This move could ultimately lower the cost of oil imports. Venezuela is also considering leaving the OPEC oil production group, Bloomberg reported. Separately, geopolitical tensions escalated after Moscow warned it could strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine in response to Kyiv's attacks on Russian territory using British-supplied long-range cruise missiles. Trump, however, said Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attack a NATO country, and he downplayed media reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe this week had warned Russian officials against such an attack. Britain is a founding member of NATO. Ukraine's military struck a Russian oil refinery in the Yaroslavl region overnight, the Ukrainian General Staff said. This week, the U.S. announced what it called the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran. Tehran said the sanctions were an "inhumane and hostile act" that had lost their effectiveness. Mediators are stepping up efforts to get the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Tehran agreed to draw up a list of conditions to restore normal traffic after a Qatari emissary pressed the Iranians to respect freedom of navigation. ### Flows through Hormuz remain choppy The tentative recovery of oil flows through the strait, through which 20% of the world's oil supply moved before the war, remained choppy. Seven commodity vessels transited on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15, preliminary shipping data showed on Friday. The Bab el-Mandeb, another major maritime chokepoint, saw 17 commodity vessels pass through, with six entering and 11 exiting. Goldman Sachs on Thursday estimated recent total Gulf exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels but 5 million to 6 million above the lowest point in March. "The ramifications on who will be in or out of OPEC, how China's demand is affected, whether the refinery issues of the globe can now be solved are hitched firmly to this bumpy wagon of war," PVM Oil Futures analyst John Evans said. Oil prices fell on Friday, on track for a weekly drop as traders evaluated hints about the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's inflation-fighting policy and rumors of a possible agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 38 cents or 0.42% at $89.32 a barrel at 10:54 a.m. CDT (1654 GMT). West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 36 cents, or 0.43%, to $83.17. Both benchmarks were poised to end the week lower, with Brent down around 5.38% and WTI falling 4.47%.

Oil slides on clues about Fed policy, rumors of Hormuz deal

Fed comments and shipping rumors pressure prices

Trump eyes Venezuela deal as geopolitical tensions rise

Sanctions, mediation efforts and flow data remain in focus

Flows through Hormuz remain choppy

Oil prices fall as traders weigh Fed comments and Hormuz rumors

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