Oliver Wyman Predicts $23.1T Healthcare Spend by 2040, $5.1T Tech Savings
Marsh’s Oliver Wyman unit forecasts global healthcare spending rising from $11.8 trillion in 2025 to $23.1 trillion by 2040, driven by population growth and inefficiencies. Coordinated AI, robotics and quantum tech adoption could offset up to 60% of cost increases, yielding $5.1 trillion in annual savings by 2040.
1. Healthcare Spending Projections
Marsh’s Oliver Wyman analysis finds that without intervention global healthcare spending will double from $11.8 trillion in 2025 to $23.1 trillion by 2040, with North America accounting for $5.5 trillion of current costs and inefficiencies driving $8.6 trillion of the projected increase.
2. Productivity Reset via Technology
The report identifies flat productivity trends in clinical, administrative and operational domains and projects that coordinated adoption of AI, automation, robotics and quantum technologies could offset up to 60% of projected cost increases.
3. Adoption Scenarios and Savings
Three technology adoption pathways—incremental, accelerated and breakthrough—demonstrate annual net savings ranging from $1.1 trillion (4% reduction) under incremental adoption to $5.1 trillion (22% reduction) under breakthrough adoption by 2040.
4. Critical Enablers and Marsh Impact
Five enablers—investment in technology infrastructure, talent pipeline development, reimbursement and liability reforms, innovation-friendly regulation and a shift to technology-enabled care models—are highlighted as critical for Marsh to drive consulting demand and support healthcare system transformations.