Oracle’s market capitalization has plunged from a record high of approximately $933 billion in September 2025 to under $470 billion today, erasing some $463 billion in value. This represents a near 50% decline since last year’s peak, driven by investor concerns over the company’s ability to capitalize on its AI investments and service its rapidly growing obligations. Despite earlier enthusiasm that positioned Oracle as a potential $1 trillion company, the sell-off has left it outside the top ten most valuable U.S. publicly traded firms.

Oracle has dramatically increased its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion—up from $35 billion just three months ago—to accelerate the build-out of AI-centric data centers. In Q2 alone, the company invested $12 billion in infrastructure, funding two Vantage-built facilities in Wisconsin and Texas and preparing a New Mexico site financed by an $18 billion bond issuance. Analysts estimate that cumulative spending on AI data centers could exceed $60 billion by fiscal 2028, underscoring the scale of Oracle’s bet on high-performance computing.

Oracle’s financial leverage has soared alongside its capex ramp-up. As of Q2 fiscal 2026, total debt stood at $108.1 billion, augmented by $24 billion in on-balance-sheet lease liabilities. In Q3, the company added $148 billion in new lease commitments, bringing total future lease obligations to $248 billion with terms extending up to 19 years. When combined, Oracle’s debt and long-term liabilities approach $380 billion—raising questions about its ability to generate sufficient cash flow for interest and lease payments should AI revenue growth underperform expectations.

Oracle’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached $523 billion at quarter end, a backlog that reflects multi-year contracts but is heavily weighted toward a single partner: OpenAI. The five-year computing deal with OpenAI accounts for roughly $300 billion of the RPO. OpenAI projects revenue of $13 billion in 2025 and $100 billion by 2027, but if those targets are not met, Oracle could face a material cash shortfall. HSBC analysts have warned of a potential funding gap of $207 billion for OpenAI by 2030, amplifying execution risk for Oracle’s AI infrastructure strategy.