Oracle Shares Plunge 20.6% After Mixed Q4; Baird Keeps $215 Target
ORCL•Oracle shares fell 20.6% this week, including an 8.5% drop Thursday, after mixed fiscal Q4 results: cloud infrastructure met forecasts but applications revenue lagged. Baird retained an Outperform rating and $215 target, citing reiterated fiscal 2027 revenue guidance, higher capex and AI momentum with four deals over $8 billion.
1. Mixed Fiscal Q4 Results and Share Decline
Oracle’s fiscal fourth quarter showed cloud infrastructure revenue in line with expectations while applications revenue fell short, triggering a 20.6% share slump for the week and an 8.5% drop on Thursday. The divergence between cloud and applications performance raised concerns over the company’s revenue mix and near-term growth trajectory.
2. Baird Rating and Guidance Updates
Baird Capital Markets upheld an Outperform rating and a $215 price target, highlighting that Oracle maintained its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance despite raising capital expenditure forecasts above Street expectations. The analyst noted that additional financing needs and elevated capex could introduce volatility into the share price in the coming quarters.
3. AI Momentum and Deal Pipeline
Oracle continues to leverage AI growth, securing four deals exceeding $8 billion during the quarter. These large-scale agreements underscore healthy demand for Oracle’s AI offerings, although the timing and integration of these contracts will be critical for future revenue recognition and margin expansion.
