Oshkosh's Defense Wins, AI Push Fail to Prevent Backlog Decline and Guidance Cut

OSKOSK

Oshkosh's defense contract wins and AI-driven vehicle advancements fail to offset a decline in Access equipment backlog and softer demand, prompting management to lower its 2025 guidance. The company trimmed its 2025 sales and operating margin outlook after reporting sequential backlog declines.

1. Backlog Decline and Softer Access Segment Weigh on Outlook

Oshkosh reported a 12% year-over-year decline in its total backlog, which fell to $8.5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter from $9.7 billion a year earlier. The company’s Access segment, which includes aerial work platforms under the JLG brand, saw new order intake drop by 15% over the same period, driven by weaker end-market construction activity in North America and Europe. As a result, Oshkosh trimmed its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $8.0 billion–$8.3 billion, down from the prior guidance of $8.2 billion–$8.6 billion, and now expects operating margins of approximately 8.0%, compared with the previous forecast of around 10.0%.

2. Defense Wins and AI-Driven Vehicle Programs

Despite the pressure on its backlog and Access segment, Oshkosh’s Defense business continues to secure significant contracts, including a new $650 million award for upgraded Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs) with AI-enabled convoy management systems. The Defense segment generated $3.1 billion in revenue during the fourth quarter, up 18% year-over-year, and operating margin in the division expanded to 12.5%, driven by higher volume on combat vehicle programs and improved production efficiencies.

3. JLTV Showcase at International Armoured Vehicles Conference

At the International Armoured Vehicles Conference in Farnborough from January 20–22, Oshkosh Defense is exhibiting its combat-proven JLTV platform in Booth D8. With more than 24,000 vehicles produced for the U.S. Armed Forces and 11 coalition partners, the JLTV is positioned as the only fully fielded light tactical vehicle available for Direct Commercial Sales to allied nations. Pat Williams, Chief Programs Officer, highlights the platform’s open architecture, which supports rapid integration of mission systems, weapons, sensors and protection packages—enabling deliveries to new customers under two-year modernization roadmaps.

Sources

ZB