Analyst firms have upgraded Pagaya’s rating to Buy, citing a reset in expectations following a period of volatility and identifying a compelling entry point ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings release. Consensus EPS forecasts for 2026 stand at roughly $3.10, but internal models suggest realistic upside to a range of $3.25–$3.50, which would translate into 5–15% share appreciation from current levels. The upgrade reflects confidence that Pagaya’s valuation now captures only a portion of its medium-term earnings potential.

In 2025 Pagaya delivered strong revenue growth driven by AI-powered underwriting across personal, auto and point-of-sale lending portfolios. Third-quarter revenue reached $350.1 million, marking a year-over-year increase of over 45%. Gross margins expanded by 200 basis points as underwriting efficiencies improved, while net credit losses stabilized at 2.8% of originations, down from 3.4% the prior year. Management has raised full-year GAAP net income guidance to a positive range, underscoring the transition to sustained profitability.

Pagaya’s B2B2C platform continues to onboard new distribution partners, adding eight strategic agreements in Q3 2025 with major banks and fintech platforms. This partner ramp is expected to drive loan origination volume up by more than 60% in 2026. The company’s multi-product adoption strategy has resulted in average revenue per partner increasing by 30% year-over-year, laying the foundation for triple-digit upside projections over the next 12–18 months.