Palantir Tops Q3 Estimates, Citigroup Lifts Target Over 30% on Defense Wins
Palantir topped Q3 estimates with EPS of $0.21 versus $0.17 consensus and $1.18 billion revenue beating $1.09 billion expectations, attributing growth to AI platform adoption. Citigroup raised its price target by over 30% after Palantir secured a £1.5 billion UK defense partnership and a $10 billion U.S. Army contract.
1. Citigroup Analyst Boosts Outlook on Palantir by Over 30%
On January 12, Citigroup’s Tyler Radke raised his one-year price target on Palantir by more than 30%, citing accelerating enterprise AI adoption and stronger-than-expected contract wins. Radke upgraded his rating to Buy and highlighted that Palantir’s Foundry and AIP platforms are securing traction with commercial clients, projecting that subscription revenues could exceed $4.5 billion by the end of 2026 if current deployment trends continue. The analyst’s revision follows a year in which the stock climbed over 2,000% since late-2020, underscoring confidence in sustained momentum driven by AI spend across both public and private sectors.
2. Q3 2025 Results Surpass Estimates and Signal Continued Profitability
In its third-quarter report filed November 3, 2025, Palantir delivered revenue of $1.18 billion, topping consensus estimates of $1.09 billion, and reported earnings per share of $0.21 versus $0.17 expected. Revenue growth of 62.8% year-over-year was fueled by new platform deployments and premium support agreements. Management guided to double-digit top-line growth for Q4 and reiterated plans to maintain operating margins above 25%, reflecting scalable software economics. This marked the seventh consecutive quarter of EPS beats and the ninth in ten quarters, reinforcing the company’s path to sustained profitability after reaching net income of $0.462 billion in fiscal 2024.
3. Multi-Billion-Dollar Government and Defense Partnerships
Palantir’s government-sourced contracts continue to dominate its revenue mix, with public sector bookings accounting for roughly 55% of total revenues in 2025. In July 2025 it secured a $10 billion software and data contract with the U.S. Army, the largest single award in company history, and in September announced a £1.5 billion partnership with the U.K. Ministry of Defence. Earlier in the year it won a $30 million immigration lifecycle management contract and a federal public health data engagement worth several hundred million dollars. These agreements underpin expectations for government contracts to grow at a compound annual rate exceeding 26% through 2026.
4. Long-Term Financial Forecasts Point to Robust Growth Through 2030
Analysts at 24/7 Wall St. project Palantir’s revenue climbing from $2.87 billion in 2024 to $8.48 billion by 2030, representing a five-year compound annual growth rate of approximately 20%. Net income is forecast to rise from $0.462 billion to $2.99 billion over the same period, with EPS expanding from $0.46 to $1.27. Free cash flow is expected to approach $6 billion by 2030, supporting continued investment in R&D and modular sales initiatives aimed at smaller enterprises. The long-term price target derived from these metrics is set at $288, implying potential upside around 68% from current levels.