Partners Group sees tighter US data center supply lifting scarcity premiums
XLK•Partners Group expects tighter US data center regulations to slow development and lift premiums for powered, permitted, leased capacity. Vacancy is 1.4%, and 80% of capacity under construction is already preleased.
1. Supply constraints
Partners Group expects tighter regulations in Texas, Georgia and Ohio—which account for roughly 37% of announced US data center capacity through 2030—to increase uncertainty for about 100 GW of capacity. Projects targeting 2028 onward face greater uncertainty, while roughly 80% of the 35 GW planned for 2027 is already under construction. Vacancy is 1.4%, and 80% of capacity under construction is preleased, supporting scarcity premiums as future supply tightens.
2. Neocloud risks
Neoclouds face greater revenue risks from delays, with only 25% to 30% of contracted capacity deployed against approximately $375 billion in backlog.
