PayPal Stock Slumps Over 80% While Q1 TPV Rises 11%
AAPL•PayPal’s stock has plunged over 80% from its $300 peak to the low-$40 range, driving the valuation down to single-digit earnings multiples. In Q1 2026, transaction margins compressed from 47.7% to 45.6% as Braintree’s higher-volume, lower-margin processing grew, even as TPV rose 11% to $464 billion and net revenue climbed 7% to $8.35 billion.
1. Historic Share Decline
From its all-time high above $300, PayPal shares have fallen more than 80%, now trading in the low-$40s and fetching single-digit earnings multiples, reflecting deep market pessimism.
2. Margin Compression Drivers
Revenue mix shifted toward unbranded processing via Braintree, causing transaction margins to dip from 47.7% to 45.6% year-over-year despite a 3% increase in raw margin dollars to $3.81 billion.
3. Competitive Landscape
Apple Pay and Google Pay’s hardware-integrated checkout, plus aggressive merchant bids by Stripe and Adyen, are eroding PayPal’s mobile dominance and pressuring its core branded checkout margins.
4. Q1 2026 Financial Performance
Total Payment Volume jumped 11% to $464 billion and net revenue rose 7% to $8.35 billion, indicating strong transaction growth despite flat active user counts at 439 million.
