Pfizer Flags Eliquis Patent Losses and Weak 2026 Guidance

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Pfizer projected lackluster fiscal guidance for the 2026 period as it confronts patent expirations for Eliquis and dwindling COVID-19 franchise revenue. The company has yet to report pivotal trial results for candidates intended to replace these cash cows, intensifying concerns over near-term top-line declines.

1. BREAKWATER Trial Cohort 3 Demonstrates Superior Response Rates

In the randomized Cohort 3 of the pivotal BREAKWATER study, Pfizer’s BRAFTOVI® (encorafenib) regimen—administered with cetuximab and the FOLFIRI chemotherapy backbone—achieved an objective response rate (ORR) of 64%, compared with 35% in the control arm receiving FOLFIRI plus cetuximab alone. The median duration of response for patients receiving the triplet therapy was 9.2 months, versus 5.1 months in the control group. These data, based on an interim analysis of 180 previously untreated metastatic colorectal cancer patients harboring BRAF V600E mutations, exceed the prespecified efficacy threshold and underscore the regimen’s potential to become a new first-line standard of care for this high-risk population.

2. Safety Profile and Tolerability Align with Prior Studies

Adverse events observed with the encorafenib, cetuximab and FOLFIRI combination were consistent with known toxicities of each individual agent. Grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events occurred in 48% of patients in the experimental arm, compared with 42% in the control arm. The most frequent Grade 3+ events included neutropenia (18%), diarrhea (12%) and fatigue (9%). Dose reductions of encorafenib were required in 14% of patients, while cetuximab dose modifications occurred in 11%. Importantly, treatment discontinuation due to toxicity was low, at 6% in the triplet arm, supporting a manageable safety profile for broad clinical use.

3. Projected Impact on Pfizer’s Oncology Franchise

With metastatic colorectal cancer accounting for approximately 140,000 new U.S. diagnoses annually—and up to 10% of these patients presenting with BRAF V600E mutations—Pfizer projects peak annual sales for the BRAFTOVI combination regimen to exceed $1.2 billion globally. Submission of a supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected in the second half of 2026, based on the full BREAKWATER dataset. Market access discussions are already underway in Europe and Asia, where health technology assessment bodies have signaled willingness to reimburse precision-targeted therapies that deliver clinically meaningful improvements over existing standards.

4. Future Development and Combination Strategies

Building on these results, Pfizer has initiated exploratory studies combining encorafenib, cetuximab and FOLFIRI with immune checkpoint inhibitors in BRAF-mutant colorectal cancer, aiming to further prolong survival and deepen response durability. Enrollment is ongoing in a Phase 1b expansion cohort evaluating the safety and preliminary efficacy of adding a PD-1 inhibitor to the triplet backbone. In parallel, translational research efforts are focused on identifying biomarkers of resistance—such as EGFR amplification or RAS pathway reactivation—to guide next-generation combination therapies and optimize patient selection.

Sources

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