Investors have expressed worries over the loss of exclusivity for Pfizer’s top-selling therapies, including Xeljanz and Ibrance, as their patents expire between 2026 and 2028. However, Pfizer’s pipeline contains multiple late-stage oncology candidates, next-generation vaccines and two investigational GLP-1/amylin dual agonists, MET-097i and MET-233i, which have shown promising Phase II data with average weight loss of over 12% and favorable safety profiles. The company anticipates filing regulatory applications for both candidates in key markets by late 2027, positioning these assets to offset revenue erosion from legacy blockbusters.

Following a peak of approximately $100 billion in product sales in 2022 driven by COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer’s full-year 2025 revenue is forecast at $61 billion to $64 billion. Management attributes this decline primarily to reduced vaccine demand but highlights plans to introduce multiple billion-dollar oncology therapies and a novel weight-management agent by 2030. These new launches are expected to deliver incremental revenue of at least $10 billion annually by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, Pfizer’s current 6.7% dividend yield ranks among the highest in the S&P 500, offering income-focused shareholders a cushion during the near-term sales transition.

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services recently selected several Pfizer products for the third cycle of its Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, marking the first time Part B–reimbursed therapies are included. Key immunology and oncology agents comprised a significant portion of the list. This development could exert downward pressure on Medicare reimbursement rates for selected drugs starting in 2028, a factor investors will monitor alongside Pfizer’s gross margin guidance for the mid-2020s.

Analysts project that Pfizer’s fourth-quarter earnings per share will decline sequentially, driven by lower COVID-19 vaccine volumes and continued price concessions in established segments. Consensus expectations call for a mid-single-digit percentage drop in adjusted operating margin versus Q3. While management is unlikely to provide new near-term guidance, the upcoming earnings release on February 1 will offer updated insights into production cost initiatives and R&D investment pacing for late-stage candidates.