Pfizer's Eliquis Revenues to Plunge 98.6% from $14.4bn to $205m
PFE•Eliquis sales will fall from $14.4bn in 2025 to $205m by 2031, a 98.6% erosion following patent expiries in Europe in May 2026 and the US in 2028. A $231 Medicare price cap effective January 2026 will reduce US net revenues two years before generic entry.
1. Patent Expiry Timeline and Revenue Forecast
Eliquis exclusivity in Europe ends in May 2026, followed by US and Japanese patent expiries in 2028. Global sales are projected to fall from $14.4bn in 2025 to $205m in 2031, representing a 98.6% decline and one of the largest single-asset LOE events.
2. Geographic Sequencing of Sales Erosion
The first wave of revenue erosion occurs outside the US, with rest-of-world sales expected to drop nearly 75% between 2025 and 2027 due to rapid generic entry driven by tender systems and formulary switching. US sales remain insulated initially, increasing their share to almost 90% of total revenues by 2027.
3. Medicare Price Cap Impact
A $231 per 30-day supply Medicare maximum fair price cap under the Inflation Reduction Act took effect in January 2026, reducing US net revenues two years before patent expiry. This early cut accelerates revenue pressure ahead of the pending US cliff.
4. Projected US Generic Revenue Cliff
When US exclusivity ends in 2028, rapid generic substitution is expected to trigger a near-50% revenue decline in a single year. By 2031 US revenues will be down 99% from their 2025 peak, accounting for over $10bn of total losses across the forecast period.
