At the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier revealed that the refiner’s facilities are now configured to process approximately 250,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, a 20% increase over last year’s capacity. This enhancement follows strategic upgrades at the Bayway and San Francisco refineries, where Phillips 66 invested $450 million in hydrocracker enhancements and coker unit modifications. The additional throughput is expected to improve refinery margins by up to $3.50 per barrel when the Venezuelan blend trades at a heavy discount to WTI, bolstering downstream profitability in the second quarter of 2026.

Beyond revenue and earnings per share estimates, Wall Street analysts are focusing on key operational indicators for Phillips 66’s December quarter. Refining throughput is forecast at 2.1 million barrels per day, compared with 2.05 million in Q4 2024, driven by planned maintenance completions. Retail segment same-store fuel volumes are projected to rise 4.5%, supported by the conversion of 60 convenience sites to the 76 and Conoco brands. Additionally, midstream segment EBITDA is expected to reach $1.1 billion, reflecting full contribution from the 250,000 bpd Dutch Gulf Coast pipeline since its August start-up.

Phillips 66’s Q4 profit is anticipated to rebound to $1.30 per share, up from $1.05 in the prior quarter, as refinery margins improve and Venezuela throughput ramps. However, revenues are seen declining 2% year-over-year to $36.8 billion, pressured by lower product crack spreads and retail fuel price resets. The stock currently trades at 13.5 times expected 2026 earnings, a 15% premium to its five-year average multiple. Investors will weigh the earnings recovery against this elevated valuation and near-term macro uncertainties, such as global refining demand forecast to grow just 0.8% next year.