Phillips 66 Trades at 13.25x EV/EBITDA with $1.11B 2026 Capex Plan
Phillips 66 trades at a trailing EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.25x, exceeding peer averages of 7.87x for Valero Energy and 5.06x for Par Pacific Holdings. The company plans to allocate $1.11 billion each to refining and midstream in 2026, while 38% net debt-to-capital and a 24.8% one-year stock gain lag peers.
1. Valuation Premium
Phillips 66’s trailing twelve-month EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 13.25x, significantly above Valero’s 7.87x and Par Pacific Holdings’ 5.06x. This premium valuation suggests investors are assigning higher growth or stability expectations than its refining peers.
2. Refining Benefits from Lower Oil Prices
With West Texas Intermediate crude around $63 per barrel and forecasts pointing to an average of $53.42 in 2026, Phillips 66’s refining margins are set to improve as feedstock costs decline. Softer crude pricing enhances the spread between input costs and refined product prices.
3. Diversification and Capital Allocation
The company plans to invest $1.11 billion each in its refining and midstream segments in 2026, underlining its diversified business model. Midstream operations provide stable fee-based cash flows, reducing overall exposure to commodity price swings.
4. Stock Performance and Leverage
Over the past year, Phillips 66’s stock rose 24.8%, trailing the broader industry’s 27.2% gain, Valero Energy’s 47.9% jump and Par Pacific’s 170.6% surge. Its net debt-to-capital ratio stood at 38% at year-end, above the 30% target, indicating continued leverage reduction efforts.