Piper Sandler Raises Deckers Target to $100, Sees Q4 EPS Beat
Deckers Outdoor received an upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Piper Sandler, with a price target lifted to $100. The firm forecasts Q4 EPS of $1.00 versus consensus $0.83 and 8% revenue growth, citing 20% direct‐to‐consumer sales rise at HOKA and improved UGG performance.
1. Analyst Upgrade and Valuation
Deckers Outdoor was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral, with Piper Sandler raising its price target to $100 from $95. The firm values the shares at roughly 13 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings, noting an improved risk‐reward profile after recent share pullbacks.
2. Q4 Forecast and Brand Performance
Piper Sandler projects fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.00, outpacing the $0.83 consensus, and forecasts 8% year‐over‐year revenue growth, above company guidance of 5%. Analysts highlight stronger direct‐to‐consumer sales at both UGG and HOKA, with HOKA DTC growth around 20% driven by new Speedgoat 7 and Gaviota 6 models.
3. Category Outlook and Balance Sheet
Despite the positive view on Deckers, analysts warn of moderating lifestyle running trends and limited HOKA diversification beyond max‐cushion styles. Piper Sandler forecasts fiscal 2027 sales growth near 7%, with HOKA in low‐ to mid‐teens and UGG in low‐ to mid‐single digits, supported by over $2 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in share repurchase authorization.