Private Credit Tops $146B, Tech Debt Makes 16.7% of Bonds in 2025
Private credit for B-and-below borrowers reached $146 billion in 2025, overtaking $85 billion in syndicated loans and pushing U.S. maturities of B-rated debt from $56.6 billion in 2026 toward a $215 billion peak in 2028. Tech issuance accounted for 16.7% of non-financial bonds in 2025, while hyperscalers plan $600 billion capex in 2026.
1. Private Credit Growth and Refinancing Pressures
Private credit lending for B-and-below rated borrowers reached $146 billion in 2025, surpassing $85 billion in broadly syndicated loans. U.S. maturities of B-rated debt are projected to climb from $56.6 billion in 2026 to $215 billion by 2028, creating significant refinancing pressure on leveraged borrowers.
2. Tech Bond Issuance and Hyperscaler Capex Plans
Tech sector debt issuance rose to 16.7% of global non-financial corporate bonds in 2025, up from 11.6% a year earlier. The top five U.S. hyperscalers are expected to invest $600 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a 38% increase over 2025 driven by AI infrastructure build-out.
3. Fed Policy Outlook and NBFI Leverage Risks
The Federal Reserve is forecast to pursue measured rate cuts in 2026 while maintaining institutional strength. Meanwhile, limited transparency and reliance on short-term funding leave highly leveraged nonbank financial institutions, particularly hedge funds, as potential sources of market volatility and liquidity strain.