Buyback Criticism Pushes D.R. Horton Shares Down, Earnings Forecast Cut
Housing czar Bill Pulte criticized D.R. Horton’s share buyback plans, sending its shares down alongside Lennar’s. Analysts now project D.R. Horton will report a year-over-year earnings decline for the quarter ended December 2025 due to insufficient growth catalysts.
1. Strong Order Growth Fuels Top‐Line Outlook
D.R. Horton is expected to report Q1 FY2026 revenue of approximately $9.7 billion, driven by a 12% year‐over‐year increase in homebuilding segment closings. The company’s backlog of 29,500 homes—up 8% from the prior quarter—carries an aggregate sales value near $12.3 billion. Analysts attribute this strength to healthy mortgage rates in the low 6% range and sustained consumer demand for entry-level and move-up housing. In addition, the average selling price for delivered homes is projected to tick up 4% sequentially to $360,000, reflecting continued land cost inflation in high-growth Sun Belt markets.
2. Margin Pressures and Cost Control Initiatives
Gross margins are forecast to contract by roughly 80 basis points to 23.5%, as labor and material costs remain elevated. However, D.R. Horton’s ongoing supply-chain optimization and strategic land purchases at an average cost of $48,000 per lot—down 5% from a year ago—should help offset inflationary headwinds. SG&A expenses are expected to decline to 4.8% of revenue, benefiting from a 30% reduction in corporate overhead through workforce realignments and centralized purchasing agreements.
3. Capital Allocation and Shareholder Return Debate
The company has authorized a $2.5 billion share-repurchase program, equivalent to approximately 8% of its current market capitalization, and plans to complete at least $600 million in buybacks during the quarter. This capital return strategy has drawn criticism from housing policy advisors concerned about reduced liquidity for land acquisition. D.R. Horton ended the prior quarter with net leverage of 1.2x net debt to EBITDA and maintains a $1.2 billion undrawn revolving credit facility, underscoring its capacity to balance growth investments with shareholder distributions.