Rathbones says UK Autumn Budget keeps bond market calm but offers little growth boost
TLT•Rathbones said the UK Autumn Budget kept bond markets calm but offered little growth support. Policy changes raised fiscal headroom to £15 billion from £12 billion, still below March’s £24 billion buffer.
1. Limited growth support
Rathbones’ October 28 analysis said the UK Autumn Budget kept government bond markets calm but offered little support for growth. Near-term tax cuts and higher spending increase borrowing, while net tax increases target compliance with the 2029-30 fiscal rule.
2. Borrowing risks remain
Rathbones said borrowing could exceed forecasts as spending assumptions face scrutiny, leaving debt-to-GDP unlikely to fall significantly from current high levels. It said investment barriers remain largely intact, limiting prospects for stronger growth needed to improve public finances and raise living standards.
