Raymond James Forecasts 85% Democratic House Odds, 50% Split Government
RJF•RJF•RJF•RJF•Raymond James projects an 85% chance Democrats reclaim the House in 2026 midterms, driven by a +7.6% generic ballot lead and President Trump’s 38% approval rating. The firm assigns a 50% probability to a split government (Democratic House, Republican Senate), warning of elevated budget shutdown risks.
Rising affordability concerns, disruptions from tariffs and the war in Iran have depressed consumer sentiment and helped drive President Trump’s 38% approval rating ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Historical data since 1982 show that sub-40% approval typically results in at least one chamber loss; a +7.6% generic ballot advantage underpins Raymond James’ assessment of an 85% probability that Democrats reclaim the House.
Senate outcomes remain tethered to each state’s 2024 presidential results, giving Democrats slim odds to flip control; Raymond James projects a 50% chance of a Democratic House and Republican Senate, warning that budget shutdown risks will rise under such a split government.
