Realtor.com Cuts 2026 Home Price Growth to 1.2% and Sales to 4.10M
NWSA•Realtor.com now expects 2026 home price growth of just 1.2%, trailing inflation, and trimmed its existing-home sales forecast to 4.10 million units, down from 4.13 million. With mortgage rates held at 6.3%, typical monthly payments are projected to drop 1.9%, boosting buyer affordability as rental prices decline.
1. Forecast Revision
Realtor.com lowered its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4.10 million units from 4.13 million and trimmed its home price growth projection to 1.2%, a pace that fails to keep up with inflation. The midyear update still anticipates a modest 1.0% sales increase over 2025 as market momentum builds in the second half.
2. Mortgage Rates and Affordability
The average mortgage rate forecast remains steady at 6.3% for 2026, supporting a projected 1.9% decline in typical monthly mortgage payments year over year. Improved affordability comes as sellers adjust asking prices upfront, which is expected to increase buyer negotiating power.
3. Rental and Inventory Trends
Rental prices are forecast to fall 1.2% in 2026 while existing-home inventory is projected to rise 3.6%, offering more supply to the market. These trends signal easing cost burdens for buyers and a shift toward more balanced, buyer-friendly market conditions.
