Record $6.67 Ground Beef Price and 7% Steer Price Forecast Boost Tyson Foods
U.S. cattle inventory fell to 85 million head, the lowest since 1951, driving ground beef to a record $6.67 per pound, up 20.5% year-over-year. USDA projects 5-area steer prices will average $240 per cwt in 2026, a 7% increase that could boost Tyson Foods’ beef segment margins.
1. Historic Cattle Shortage
U.S. cattle and calves inventory declined to approximately 85 million head, the lowest level since 1951 and down about 45 million from the 1975 peak of 130 million. The herd has shrunk by nearly 10 million head since 2020, tightening supply across the beef cycle.
2. Record Ground Beef Prices
Average ground beef prices surged to $6.67 per pound, marking a 20.5% increase over the past 12 months and a roughly 72% rise since January 2020, as limited herd sizes push retail prices higher.
3. USDA 2026 Outlook
The USDA forecasts total red meat and poultry production rising 1% to 108.4 billion pounds in 2026, while beef output is expected to decline. The 5-area steer price is projected to average $240 per cwt, up 7% from 2025, supported by strong demand and tight supplies, even as feed costs fall.
4. Impact on Tyson Foods
Tyson Foods, with significant U.S. beef operations, stands to benefit from elevated cattle prices and record retail beef pricing, potentially boosting its beef segment margins despite slower volume growth.