Eli Lilly’s upcoming fourth-quarter results are poised to reflect continued momentum in its GLP-1 portfolio, with Mounjaro and Zepbound expected to account for a majority of growth. In the third quarter, these two therapies generated $10.1 billion in combined sales, contributing to a 54% year-over-year revenue increase to $17.6 billion. Analysts forecast that sustained patient demand, strengthened by expanded manufacturing capacity, will underpin another double-digit sales gain in Q4.

Throughout 2025, Lilly has ramped production at its Indiana and European manufacturing sites, reducing backorders and accelerating prescription fills. Management noted a 35% increase in monthly patient starts for Mounjaro and a 28% rise for Zepbound over the past two quarters. New distribution agreements in Japan and Brazil, where obesity rates exceed 30%, are expected to contribute an incremental $600 million to Q4 GLP-1 revenues.

While pricing pressure from competitive entrants has slightly compressed average selling prices—down approximately 3% sequentially—expanded reimbursement by major U.S. and European payers has offset margin impacts. Lilly secured favorable formulary placements with three of the top five U.S. pharmacy benefit managers, resulting in an estimated 15% uplift in covered lives for its weight-loss injectable. This broadening insurance coverage supports volume gains that analysts believe will more than compensate for modest price concessions.

Investors are also looking toward pipeline developments to sustain momentum. The phase 3 weight-loss candidate retatrutide reported 28.7% mean body-weight reduction at 68 weeks in a recent trial, alongside a pain-relief benefit in osteoarthritis patients. With a regulatory submission for an oral GLP-1 option expected later this year, Lilly’s management has guided to at least two new indications over the next 12 months—factors that underpin consensus revenue estimates of $75 billion for fiscal 2026, up 40% from the prior year.