Rigetti Computing has delivered nearly 650% cumulative gains since its SPAC merger in 2020, but its annual revenue fell 12% to $42 million in fiscal 2025. The company’s gross margin remains deeply negative at –6,849%, driven by high R&D and manufacturing costs for its superconducting qubit systems. Investors should weigh the stock’s past performance against its current inability to generate positive operating cash flow, which was –$78 million last year.

Rigetti’s cash burn of $85 million in 2025 prompted two at-the-market equity offerings that raised $120 million of gross proceeds. As of December 31, 2025, the company held $95 million in cash and equivalents against $150 million of total debt and lease obligations. With a current runway into mid-2026 at the existing cash-burn pace, further share issuances may be required, diluting existing shareholders unless significant revenue growth materializes.

Rigetti’s gate-based quantum processors achieved up to 99.5% two-gate fidelity, trailing the 99.99% benchmark set by leading competitors. A planned general release of its 108-qubit ‘Novera’ system was delayed in Q4 2025 due to fidelity shortfalls. On the positive side, Rigetti secured a three-year $15 million contract with the U.S. Air Force and integrated its platform with Nvidia’s NVQLink interface, positioning itself for co-development opportunities in quantum-AI workloads.

For sustained upside, Rigetti must demonstrate fidelity improvements above 99.9% to compete for large government and enterprise awards, complete the Novera rollout in H1 2026, and expand its customer base beyond the current 10 commercial clients. Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA by fiscal 2027 would also be a key catalyst, reducing dilution risk and validating management’s strategy to transition from pure research toward a commercially viable quantum services provider.