Over the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, Rigetti Computing generated just $5.2 million in total revenue, a 39% decline from the same period in 2024. In October, the company announced two system sales totaling $5.7 million—exceeding its entire Q1–Q3 2025 haul—but cannot recognize this revenue until the first half of 2026. As a result, when Rigetti reports Q4 2025 results in March, analysts expect it to miss the $7.6 million revenue consensus. With sales shrinking and delayed bookings, the company also risks falling short of forecasts for reducing its net loss to $0.03 per share, intensifying pressure on its shares.

Rigetti’s gross margin remains deeply negative, reflecting high R&D and manufacturing costs for its superconducting qubit systems. The company’s two-qubit gate fidelity stands at 99.5%, trailing competitor benchmarks and falling below the 99.9% threshold recommended for practical error correction. In November, Rigetti postponed the launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q processor to address these accuracy issues. Moreover, the firm failed to advance past Stage A of the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, underscoring ongoing reliability and performance gaps in its full-stack offering.

Despite boasting a modular architecture and posting year-to-date stock gains exceeding 10% as of early 2026, Rigetti remains unprofitable and dwarfed by higher-fidelity rivals. Recent orders include an $8.4 million contract from India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, prompting upgrades from select brokerages, but analysts caution that sporadic small-scale deals are insufficient to justify a multibillion-dollar valuation. Consensus projections show no path to profitability before 2027, and with cash burn persisting at over $20 million per quarter, Rigetti is viewed by many on Wall Street as a speculative play until it delivers consistent revenue growth and error-corrected quantum performance.