RisCura flags China consumer demand lagging industry growth as retail sales rise 1.2% in Jan-July 2026
FXI•Consumption plan targets deeper support
A 2026-2030 national consumption plan targets retail sales near RMB 60 trillion, with support aimed beyond goods incentives.
Investor takeaway centered on selectivity, favoring businesses tied to durable services-led demand over broad consumer exposure.
China consumer demand lags industrial growth
RisCura flagged China’s consumer economy at an inflection point, with household demand subdued relative to industrial activity.
Retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.2% in the first seven months of 2026, down from 4.8% a year earlier.
Industrial production increased 5.3% over the same period, underscoring a widening gap between consumption and factory-led growth.
Household spending remains weak despite targeted categories
Household consumption was about 40% of GDP in 2024, below 49% in upper-middle-income economies and 57% globally.
Property weakness, falling real estate development investment and financial uncertainty were cited as key drags on confidence.
Broader retail sales of goods and services grew in 2026 year-to-date; services rose versus for goods.
