Rivian Stock Rallies 27% After Q4 EBITDA Beat, Draws Underperform Downgrade
Rivian’s Q4 2025 revenue of $1.29 billion fell 26% year-over-year while an adjusted EBITDA loss of $465 million beat forecasts, supporting a 27% stock rally. DA Davidson downgraded the stock to underperform, flagging execution risks around a 20,000–25,000 unit R2 rollout without dealer support or tax credits.
1. Q4 2025 Financial Results
Rivian reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.29 billion, down 26% year-over-year, while an adjusted EBITDA loss of $465 million beat expectations. Gross margin held at 9% despite a 31% drop in deliveries and a 14% production decline.
2. Record Stock Surge
Shares jumped 27% on Feb. 13, marking the largest post-IPO rally as investors cheered the EBITDA outperformance and margin resilience. Even after the surge, shares remain over 75% below their $78 IPO price, underscoring ongoing valuation concerns.
3. DA Davidson Downgrade
DA Davidson cut its rating to underperform and trimmed its price target to $14 from $15, warning that delivering 20,000–25,000 R2 units in 2026 demands flawless execution. Analysts highlighted challenges including limited mass-channel dealers, reduced EV incentives and low oil prices.
4. 2026 Guidance and Risks
Rivian guided for 62,000–67,000 vehicle deliveries in 2026 with adjusted EBITDA losses of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion. Meeting these goals hinges on a smooth R2 ramp-up, sustained consumer demand and navigating a shrinking incentive landscape.