Rocket Lab Q4 Revenue Tops Forecast, Backlog Doubles to $1.85B
Rocket Lab posted Q4 revenue of $179.7M, beating the $177.2M consensus, with adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.4M topping expectations. The company’s backlog doubled to $1.85B, but Neutron’s launch delay to FY26 Q4 and high valuation raised execution and sentiment concerns.
1. Divergent Analyst Ratings
Citizens JMP maintained a Market Perform rating, citing elevated valuation and execution risks around Neutron despite the Q4 beat, while Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating and raised its price target from $72 to $85, pointing to long-term contract momentum and scale.
2. Strong Q4 Results and Backlog Growth
Rocket Lab delivered $179.7M in Q4 revenue, up 36% year-over-year and surpassing the $177.2M consensus, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.4M also outperforming forecasts. The company completed 21 launches in fiscal 2025 and saw its backlog swell to approximately $1.85B, with 37% expected to convert within 12 months.
3. Neutron Launch Delay and Execution Risks
A third-party manufacturing defect led to a Stage 1 tank rupture, pushing Neutron’s maiden launch from fiscal 2026 Q1 to Q4. Citizens JMP trimmed its FY26 non-GAAP EPS estimate to an $0.08 loss and highlighted that the delay and premium 30.1x 2027 EV/revenue multiple could constrain near-term stock performance.