ROI-Energy Watch: Back on the boil

Yet it was Trump who grabbed the headlines. The U.S. president unveiled a separate and highly unusual agreement granting the United States access to a fifth of Venezuela's oil reserves. Under the proposal, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) would receive a **100-year lease** over **17 Venezuelan oilfields** containing an estimated **65 billion barrels** of reserves. The U.S. would take a **35% stake** in the project's parent company, secure **20% of production**, and gain the right of first refusal on the remaining output. The announcement triggered an immediate backlash from Venezuelan opposition figures, while raising a host of legal and practical questions. Ironically, a deal designed to accelerate Venezuela's oil recovery could end up complicating it. More on this in my latest column. A fresh round of U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Middle East has pushed crude prices back toward **$95 a barrel**, reminding markets that tensions in the region remain the biggest wildcard for global energy supplies. Washington's embargo on Iranian oil exports is steadily tightening the economic screws on Tehran by targeting its main source of revenue. At the same time, the U.S. midterm elections are drawing closer, giving President Donald Trump a strong incentive to keep gasoline prices under control and avoid further exacerbating this regional conflict. On the one hand, that combination might point toward imminent deescalation. But it could also encourage Iran to raise the economic stakes, particularly if it believes greater disruption will increase pressure on Washington. Lastly, a quick note that we won't be publishing Energy Watch on Monday, as U.S. markets are off for Labor Day. In other news: - As China has learned to live on less fuel since the Iran war, its carbon emissions have fallen, a new analysis showed on Thursday, with researchers saying a structural shift towards electrification and cleaner transport was creating the conditions for a sustained decline in emissions. - Energy trade routes that optimize distance and costs may no longer be suitable for the fractured and fractious modern world, especially for major importers, wrote ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire. - A remote shale natural gas field in northern Australia may seem like an unusual beneficiary of the Iran conflict, but that's precisely the case, explains ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell. These rising tensions are clearly evident in the Strait of Hormuz. Visible tanker traffic through the vital waterway has fallen in recent days following a series of Iranian attacks near the passage, including a strike on a Saudi tanker that killed two seafarers. Tracking exactly how much oil is leaving the Gulf remains difficult, as many vessels have switched off their transponders. Even so, exports appear to remain well below the roughly **18 million barrels per day** that flowed through the strait before the war. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Venezuela took centre stage this week. Executives from oil majors including Chevron and Eni gathered in Caracas alongside interim President Delcy Rodríguez and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright to sign a wave of new energy agreements. Most are the culmination of months of negotiations between international firms, Venezuela's Oil Ministry and state producer PDVSA, following sweeping petroleum sector reforms approved in January. The deals are intended to help revive an industry that once powered the Venezuelan economy. Production currently stands at around **1.25 million barrels per day**, still a long way from the country's peak of more than **3 million bpd** in the late 1990s.

ROI-Energy Watch: Back on the boil

Trump unveils unusual Venezuela oil proposal

Crude prices rise as Middle East tensions flare

Other energy stories and note on Monday publication

Strait of Hormuz traffic falls while Venezuela takes centre stage

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